Chicago Cubs at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction
The Chicago Cubs (38-27) take their five-game winning streak to Flushing, Queens to open a four-game set with the New York Mets (32-25) at Citi Field Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Cubs vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Chicago completed a three-game sweep of long-time rival the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday with a 2-0 and won the series by a combined score of 17-7.
The Cubs have won six of their last seven games and are tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for first in the NL Central.
New York had its three-game winning streak snapped Sunday in a 7-3 loss to the San Diego Padres but remain atop the NL East by three games.
Season series: Cubs lead 3-0.
RHP Jake Arrieta takes the hill for the Cubs. Arrieta is 5-6 with a 4.97 ERA (58 IP, 32 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 over 12 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Chicago's 3-1 win over the Padres Wednesday.
- Arrieta beat the Mets on April 20 going 5 IP allowing 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and recording 4 K in Chicago's 3-1 home victory.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 204 at-bats with a .314/.379/.471 slash line, 45/20 K/BB, 7 HR and 21 RBIs.
LHP David Peterson makes his 12th start for the Mets. Peterson is 1-5 with a 6.32 ERA (47 IP, 33 ER), 1.51 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 this year.
- Last start: Loss, 10-3, with 2 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 4 K at the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday.
- Peterson earned a loss at the Cubs on April 21 with a stat line of 3 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 3 K in New York's 16-4 loss.
- vs. Cubs on the current roster: 14 at-bats with a .286/.375/.286 slash line, 3/2 K/BB, 0 HR and 4 RBIs.
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Cubs at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction
- Money line: Cubs -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Mets -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cubs -1.5 (+150) | Mets +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Mets 5, Cubs 2
Money line (ML)
Both teams are playing great coming into Monday but the METS (-115) are the play because they are playing a little better in all phases of the game and New York is 17-6 at home this season.
For instance, New York's lineup got out to a really slow start, mostly due to injuries, but over the past two weeks the Mets are top-8 in advanced hitting metrics such as wOBA, wRC+ and WAR.
Furthermore, Peterson performs a lot better at Citi Field than on the road. Peterson has a 4.12 home ERA (7.90 ERA on the road), 1.17 home WHIP (1.76 WHIP on the road) and is 0-3 in away games.
Also, Peterson's form in his loss to the Cubs earlier this season was much better than the final outcome and his basic numbers suggest.
In his April 21 start vs. Chicago, Peterson had his second-lowest hard-hit rate and third-lowest exit velocity of the season with a 0.0% barrel rate.
However, Peterson's .364 BABIP and 3.68 xFIP vs. the Cubs highlights how unlucky he was in that outing.
The opposite can be said about Arrieta in his appearance against the Mets this year.
Arrieta had a freakishly low .154 BABIP and a 5.46 xFIP compared to a 1.80 ERA in that game and xFIP is a better indicator of true pitching performance than your basic ERA.
BET the METS (-115) for 1 unit.
PASS since the Mets +1.5 (-185) is far too expensive and New York's alternate run line of -1.5 (+165) is a no-go considering how evenly matched these two ball clubs are coupled with the fact that Peterson is a "back of the rotation" guy at best.
PASS because situational trends for the total point in both directions, and despite both teams trotting out their less effective starters each should be on a short leash since both bullpens are elite.
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