Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions
The Seattle Mariners (39-42) head to Petco Park Monday to start a 2-game interleague series with the San Diego Padres (47-34) at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Mariners vs. Padresodds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle is 7-3 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, which includes 3 consecutive series wins over the Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics.
San Diego prevented a 4-game sweep by the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 4-1 win Sunday, but is just 3-7 SU in the last 10.
The Padres beat the Mariners in last year's season series 3-0 and had a plus-24 run differential in those meetings.
Mariners at Padres projected starters
RHP Chris Flexen vs. LHP Sean Manaea
Flexen is 4-8 with a 4.32 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 83 1/3 IP over 15 starts.
- Last start: Won 9-3 Wednesday at home vs. the Orioles with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
- 2022 vs. the Padres: One start, a 16-1 loss in San Diego May 21 with 1 2/3 IP, 8 ER, 10 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 1 K.
Manaea is 3-3 with a 3.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 85 IP over 14 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in San Diego's 7-6 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday with 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 7 K.
- 2021 vs. the Mariners: 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA (21 IP, 5 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 1 HR and 10.3 K/9 in 3 starts.
Mariners at Padres odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:41 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML) : Mariners +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Padres -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Mariners +1.5 (-140) | Padres -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U) : 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Mariners at Padres picks and predictions
Mariners 4, Padres 2
LEAN MARINERS (+155) only because their RL has more value.
However, Seattle's lineup has been a lot more productive at the plate than the Padres (-190) recently. The Mariners outrank the Padres in several advanced hitting categories over the past two weeks such as WAR (2.5-0.6), wRC+ (117-84), wOBA (.324-.283) and ISO (.182-.122), per FanGraphs.
Also, I'd like to fade the one-way action headed toward San Diego since more than 80% of the action is on the Padres (according to Pregame.com) and we know 8 of 10 sports bettors don't beat the House.
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RISK 1 unit on the MARINERS +1.5 (-140) instead of betting to win 1 unit since this is a pricey RL.
But, the Padres are just 10-20 RL as home favorites while the Mariners are 27-19 RL as underdogs and the presumed sharp side of the market is backing Seattle.
Nearly 70% of the cash is on the Mariners +1.5 (-140), but more than 80% of the bets placed are on the Padres -1.5 (+115), per Pregame.com. Typically, it's wise to follow the money when it's counter to the public since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than your average Joe.
If your standard unit is $100 then "FLAT-BET" that on the MARINERS +1.5 (-140) to earn a $71.43 profit instead of betting $140 to win $100.
BET only a half-unit on the UNDER 7.5 (-102) because this is a sharp number and we might get a better price by waiting closer to the 1st pitch.
That said, the Mariners are 18-26-2 O/U as underdogs and 4-11 O/U in Flexen's 15 starts despite his underwhelming pitching stats.
Also, Seattle is 0-4 O/U in the last 4 games vs. teams with a winning record and 0-4-1 O/U in the last games vs. a left-handed starter.
Finally, the Padres are 12-17-1 O/U as home favorites and Petco Park is last in park factor - aka it's the most pitch-friendly venue in the majors.
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