St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions
The Atlanta Braves (46-34) host the St. Louis Cardinals (44-37) Monday for the start of their 4-game series at Truist Park with the 1st pitch scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let's analyze Tipico Sportsbook's lines around the Cardinals vs. Bravesodds with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis is just 4-6 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games and dropped 2 of a 3-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies last weekend.
Atlanta is 6-4 SU in the last 10 with 2 consecutive 2-1 series road victories at the Phillies last week and at the Cincinnati Reds over the weekend.
The Braves beat the Cardinals 6-1 SU in last year's season series and had a plus-17 run differential in those meetings, but St. Louis is 3-0 vs. Atlanta this season with plus-7 run differential in the 3 games.
Cardinals at Braves projected starters
RHP Dakota Hudson vs. RHP Kyle Wright
Hudson is 6-4 with a 3.83 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 5.0 K/9 in 80 IP over 15 starts.
- Last start: Won 5-3 Tuesday at home vs. the Miami Marlins with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
- 5-day rest splits: 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 0 HR and 5.7 K/9 in 4 starts.
Wright is 9-4 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 92 IP over 15 starts.
- Last start: Won 4-1 Wednesday at the Phillies with 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 4 K.
- 4-day rest splits: 2-2 with a 4.02 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 4 HR and 8.0 K/9 in 5 starts.
Cardinals at Braves odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:44 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML) : Cardinals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Cardinals +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U) : 9.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let's make this interesting.Bet now!
Cardinals at Braves picks and predictions
Braves 6, Cardinals 3
RISK 1 unit on the BRAVES (-180) instead of betting to win 1 unit because we are getting the worst of the number. But, Atlanta has a 3-phase edge over the Cardinals (+145) in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
Wright grades in the 64th percentile or better in expected ERA, whiff rate, K% and expected slugging percentage (per Statcast) while Hudson grades in the 19th percentile or worse in all those metrics.
Atlanta's bullpen is a lot more reliable than St. Louis's. The Braves relievers are 3rd in xFIP (3.60) with much better swing-and-miss and contact rates than the Cardinals' bullpen whose 22nd in xFIP (4.09), per FanGraphs.
Also, Atlanta's lineup outperforms St. Louis's vs. right-handed pitching in wOBA (.320-.314), ISO (.189-.151) and hard-hit rate (36.6-27.6%), according to FanGraphs.
Finally, the Cardinals are just 2-8 SU as road underdogs of +125 or greater with a minus-53.5% return on investment (ROI). The Braves are 6-2 SU as home favorites with Wright as the starters with a plus-23.3% ROI.
If your standard unit is $100 then "FLAT-BET" that on the BRAVES (-180) to earn a $55.56 profit instead of betting $180 to win $100.
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 8/31/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!
We are getting late to the party here since Atlanta's RL opened at +120 (according to Pregame.com) and the Braves are just 3-5 RL with a minus-22.1% ROI as home favorites with Wright on the bump.
LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-112) because both lineups are less productive vs. right-handed pitching, the Braves are 4-11 O/U in Wright's 15 starts and the Cardinals are 4-6 O/U as road underdogs of +125 or greater. However, Atlanta's ML is my favorite look in Cardinals-Braves.
Additional MLB coverage:
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).